[Ok-sus] Fwd: My ASPO Webinar - Transport Beyond Oil - The Economic, National Securi ty, Energy and Environmental Implications of New Paradigms

Bob Waldrop bwaldrop1952 at att.net
Sat Nov 3 14:05:42 CDT 2012


This webinar will be November 15th, between 2 and 330 PM, Eastern time.

Bob Waldrop, OKC

-------- Original Message --------

Dear All,

My Webinar will look at three oil free paradigms that will result in a 
step change down in energy consumption for a fraction of the 
population/economy - and a step change up in energy efficiency for that 
fraction.
There are strong indications that there is existing market demand for 
these three new paradigms - that investing in them will be "Rolling 
Boulders Downhill". Some effort to get going, but self reinforcing once 
started.
The invite is at
http://hosted.verticalresponse.com/684580/377cdf8592/289263733/314d61f12a/
A sneak peak for the members here. The three new paradigms are
1) Electrifying and expanding the freight rail system and shift much of 
the truck freight to rail - trade 20 BTUs of refined diesel for 1 BTU of 
potentially renewable electricity by shifting freight from trucks to 
electrified double stack container trains (the most efficient mode, much 
more efficient than single stack or diesel rail). Improved and oil free 
inter-city rail passenger service is a bonus.
2) Urban Rail and associated Transit Orientated Development - Major 
cities with established urban rail systems use about 60% of the gasoline 
of those without. TOD dramatically enhances that effect - the Chair of 
the Congress of New Urbanism claims TOD has 1/4th the carbon (and hence 
energy) footprint of Suburbia.
Roughly 30% of Americans want to live in TOD, but less than 2% do 
because there is just not enough "T" to "OD" around. See the market 
premium for living close to a Metro station to confirm the market demand 
for TOD.
3) Making bicycling safer and easier. Any % shift to bicycling is an 
orders of magnitude drop in energy and carbon demand. Copenhagen, after 
the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo set about increasing bike modal share as a 
deliberate energy policy. After decades of effort, 38% of urban trips 
are by bike and plans are to increase that to 50%.
In the USA, towns and cities may need to increase bicycling modal share 
from 0.7% or 2% to 5%, then 12% and ...
Bicycling provides a general and wide based opportunity for individuals 
to make an oil free choice. The investment required is very small and 
the cost-benefit ratio can be extraordinarily high. As the price of oil 
increases, and climate awareness grows, demand for bicycling will surely 
grow - if it is safe and easy to bicycle to work, school and shop.
None of these are all encompassing "solutions" but are rather oil free 
alternatives that can be developed in parallel to our established oil 
based transportation paradigms. They are major shifts for significant 
fractions of our total oil and energy demand.
Best Hopes,
Alan Drake





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