[Ok-sus] Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the Supply,Outlook - from EWG!

Robert Waldrop bwaldrop1952 at att.net
Sat Mar 30 20:23:31 UTC 2013

Another report debunking the peak oil is dead meme.
 Bob Waldrop, Oklahoma City
http://www.ipermie.net -- How to permaculture your urban lifestyle

NEW! Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the Supply,Outlook -           from EWG!

Since 1998 when the oil geologists Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère     
published a widely
discussed survey article “The End of Cheap Oil” in the journal     “Scientific 
American”, the
concept of peak oil and the present state of oil depletion are part     of any 
serious analysis of the
future oil supply potential. However, recently various publications     suggest 
that oil is still
abundantly available and that there is little need to worry about     the future 
oil supply potential.
As in previous years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its     latest 
World Energy
Outlook 2012 (WEO 2012) projects a rising global oil demand and     supply in 
the coming
decades. The IEA explicitely asserts that for the forseeable future     – to 
2035 and beyond – no
geological or technical restrictions will prevent a continually     growing oil 
supply. The media
were echoing this report by emphasising the likelihood of a global     oil and 
gas supply glut
triggered by new production technologies in the USA, while ignoring     possible 
supply restrictions.

In contrast to the projections put forward by the IEA, in 2008 the     Energy 
Watch Group
(EWG) had published a report on the future world oil supply,     presenting a 
scenario projecting
a significant decline of global oil supply in the coming decades up     to 2030. 
It is the intention
of this new report to update these findings by analysing the     developments 
which took place in
the last five years and thereby to arrive at an enhanced     understanding of 
the conditions
determining present and future oil supply.

In addition, it is the intention of this study to broaden the     perspective of 
the original study by
embedding the oil scenario into a global scenario for all fossil and     nuclear 
fuels by including
natural gas and by updating the EWG coal supply scenario of 2006 and     the EWG 
supply scenario of 2007.

In a nutshell, this report gives a short overview on the future     availability 
of fossil and nuclear
fuels with an emphasis on critical issues.

Empirical data shows that world oil production has not increased     anymore but 
entered a plateau since about 2005. The production of conventional     oil is 
already in
slight decline since about 2008. The peaking of conventional oil is     now also 
by the International Energy Agency. Present and future efforts by     the oil 
industry are
directed at upholding this plateau as long as possible while at the     same 
time having to
struggle with the growing decline of production in ageing fields. It     is 

increasingly more difficult to compensate this reduction by     developing new 
which are getting harder to find, smaller, and are of poorer     quality.

 Recent increases of unconventional oil and gas production in the     USA are 
due to a
number of specific conditions, such as a highly developed oil and     gas 
industry and
infrastructure, sizeable unconventional oil and gas resources in     prospective 
areas with
very low population densities, certain financial incentives for     publicly 
companies, and exemptions for the oil and gas industry from     environmental
restrictions (Energy Policy Act 2005). But most important were the     high oil 
and gas
prices reached in 2006. This has led to the fast development of the     few hot 
spots of
shale gas and light tight oil while the decline of the conventional     oil and 
production is continuing to progress.

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