[Ok-sus] Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the Supply,Outlook - from EWG!
bwaldrop1952 at att.net
Sat Mar 30 20:23:31 UTC 2013
Another report debunking the peak oil is dead meme.
Bob Waldrop, Oklahoma City
http://www.ipermie.net -- How to permaculture your urban lifestyle
NEW! Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the Supply,Outlook - from EWG!
Since 1998 when the oil geologists Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère
published a widely
discussed survey article “The End of Cheap Oil” in the journal “Scientific
concept of peak oil and the present state of oil depletion are part of any
serious analysis of the
future oil supply potential. However, recently various publications suggest
that oil is still
abundantly available and that there is little need to worry about the future
oil supply potential.
As in previous years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest
Outlook 2012 (WEO 2012) projects a rising global oil demand and supply in
decades. The IEA explicitely asserts that for the forseeable future – to
2035 and beyond – no
geological or technical restrictions will prevent a continually growing oil
supply. The media
were echoing this report by emphasising the likelihood of a global oil and
gas supply glut
triggered by new production technologies in the USA, while ignoring possible
In contrast to the projections put forward by the IEA, in 2008 the Energy
(EWG) had published a report on the future world oil supply, presenting a
a significant decline of global oil supply in the coming decades up to 2030.
It is the intention
of this new report to update these findings by analysing the developments
which took place in
the last five years and thereby to arrive at an enhanced understanding of
determining present and future oil supply.
In addition, it is the intention of this study to broaden the perspective of
the original study by
embedding the oil scenario into a global scenario for all fossil and nuclear
fuels by including
natural gas and by updating the EWG coal supply scenario of 2006 and the EWG
supply scenario of 2007.
In a nutshell, this report gives a short overview on the future availability
of fossil and nuclear
fuels with an emphasis on critical issues.
Empirical data shows that world oil production has not increased anymore but
entered a plateau since about 2005. The production of conventional oil is
slight decline since about 2008. The peaking of conventional oil is now also
by the International Energy Agency. Present and future efforts by the oil
directed at upholding this plateau as long as possible while at the same
time having to
struggle with the growing decline of production in ageing fields. It is
increasingly more difficult to compensate this reduction by developing new
which are getting harder to find, smaller, and are of poorer quality.
Recent increases of unconventional oil and gas production in the USA are
due to a
number of specific conditions, such as a highly developed oil and gas
infrastructure, sizeable unconventional oil and gas resources in prospective
very low population densities, certain financial incentives for publicly
companies, and exemptions for the oil and gas industry from environmental
restrictions (Energy Policy Act 2005). But most important were the high oil
prices reached in 2006. This has led to the fast development of the few hot
shale gas and light tight oil while the decline of the conventional oil and
production is continuing to progress.
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