[Ok-sus] Matters arising: Bloomberg editorial, federal transportation funding near collapse, high tech bubble
bob at bobwaldrop.net
Wed Apr 23 22:06:20 UTC 2014
Data! Data! Data! No not Star Trek, hydrocarbon data. Next time
someone makes noise about "energy independence," or "exporting US crude
and natural gas," or "peak oil is dead", point out "That's not what the
data says. It may be what the propaganda artists say, but they are
concocting an unreality and selling it as fact."
bob Waldrop, Okie City
Is the U.S. Shale Boom Going Bust?
86 Apr 22, 2014 10:59 AM EDT
By Tom Zeller Jr.
It's not surprising that a survey of energy professionals attending the
2014 North American Prospect Expo overwhelmingly identified "U.S. energy
independence" as the trend most likely to gain momentum this year. Like
any number of politicians and pundits, these experts are riding high on
the shale boom -- that catch-all colloquialism for the rise of hydraulic
fracturing and horizontal drilling that have unleashed a torrent of
hydrocarbons from previously inaccessible layers of rock.
But this optimism belies an increasingly important question: How long
will it all last?
Among drilling critics and the press, contentious talk of a "shale
bubble" and the threat of a sudden collapse of America's oil and gas
boom have been percolating for some time. While the most dire of these
warnings are probably overstated, a host of geological and economic
realities increasingly suggest that the party might not last as long as
most Americans think...
The problems arise when you look at how quickly production from these
new, unconventional wells dries up. David Hughes -- a 32-year veteran
with the Geological Survey of Canada and a now research fellow with the
Post Carbon Institute <http://www.postcarbon.org/>, a sustainability
think-tank in California -- notes that the average decline of the
world's conventional oil fields is about 5 percent per year. By
comparison, the average decline of oil wells in North Dakota's booming
Bakken shale oil field is 44 percent per year. Individual wells can see
production declines of 70 percent or more in the first year...
much more including charts at the link above.
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