[Ok-sus] Matters arising: Bloomberg editorial, federal transportation funding near collapse, high tech bubble

Bob Waldrop bob at bobwaldrop.net
Wed Apr 23 22:06:20 UTC 2014

Data! Data! Data!  No not Star Trek, hydrocarbon data.  Next time 
someone makes noise about "energy independence," or "exporting US crude 
and natural gas," or "peak oil is dead", point out "That's not what the 
data says.  It may be what the propaganda artists say, but they are 
concocting an unreality and selling it as fact."

bob Waldrop, Okie City


Is the U.S. Shale Boom Going Bust?

86 Apr 22, 2014 10:59 AM EDT
By Tom Zeller Jr.

It's not surprising that a survey of energy professionals attending the 
2014 North American Prospect Expo overwhelmingly identified "U.S. energy 
independence" as the trend most likely to gain momentum this year. Like 
any number of politicians and pundits, these experts are riding high on 
the shale boom -- that catch-all colloquialism for the rise of hydraulic 
fracturing and horizontal drilling that have unleashed a torrent of 
hydrocarbons from previously inaccessible layers of rock.

But this optimism belies an increasingly important question: How long 
will it all last?

Among drilling critics and the press, contentious talk of a "shale 
bubble" and the threat of a sudden collapse of America's oil and gas 
boom have been percolating for some time. While the most dire of these 
warnings are probably overstated, a host of geological and economic 
realities increasingly suggest that the party might not last as long as 
most Americans think...

The problems arise when you look at how quickly production from these 
new, unconventional wells dries up. David Hughes -- a 32-year veteran 
with the Geological Survey of Canada and a now research fellow with the 
Post Carbon Institute <http://www.postcarbon.org/>, a sustainability 
think-tank in California -- notes that the average decline of the 
world's conventional oil fields is about 5 percent per year. By 
comparison, the average decline of oil wells in North Dakota's booming 
Bakken shale oil field is 44 percent per year. Individual wells can see 
production declines of 70 percent or more in the first year...

much more including charts at the link above.


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